Well if you have made it this far, congratulations! You are about halfway done the season! So far, I have to say it has been pretty smooth sailing. In fact, last week, no one was eliminated in my survivor pool. This was disappointing news for me, since I want other people to get knocked out, but it has been the common theme of this season thus far. Just not too many teams are getting upset on a week to week basis. Now that we have eight less teams to choose from, and bye weeks are at full swing, finding those double digit home favorites will be harder and harder, which could lead to more people getting knocked out. Depending on the route you have taken thus far, and the teams you have left, this may be the toughest week yet. After an easy Week 8, we have our work cut out for us in Week 9.

Tony Romo and the Cowboys are 11.5 point favorites when they host the Vikings this week.

The Good

Seattle Seahawks (-16) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This is the only “sure thing” this week. The issue is, many people have already used Seattle (myself included). If they are still available, take them.

Green Bay Packers (-12) vs Chicago Bears: I tend to avoid Monday Night Football if possible. The Bears defense has been underperforming this season, while the Green Bay offense is playing its best football to date. On top of that, the Bears are without their starting quarterback. It all adds up to what should be an easy Green Bay win.

Dallas Cowboys (-11.5) vs Minnesota Vikings:  In most cases, this is the pick many people will be contemplating. Seattle has been used by all but a select few people, meaning the Cowboys are your best option. Dallas has been playing pretty well this season, especially at home. After an embarrassing collapse last week, they will want to get back on track. The Vikings have looked awful this year. It appears ponder will be the quarterback again this week, who does not bring a lot of fear to me.

Carolina Panthers (-9) vs Atlanta Falcons: Believe it or not, I like the Panthers here. Cam Newton and co have been a tear recently. I understand that their level of competition during this stretch has not been high, but we have to start looking at the Falcons as a 2-5 team, not a Super Bowl contender like we did five weeks ago.

The Bad

New Orleans Saints (-7) at New York Jets: This game SCREAMS trap. Never ever ever ever pick a road team. The Saints are a historically bad road team. Though they are 6-1 this season, playing in New York in November will not be an easy task, even if they are playing a Jets team that allowed 49 points last week. The fact is, the Jets actually are decent at home. To go along with that, let’s not forget that the Saints defense really is not that good. If it was not for some silly mistakes by Thad Lewis, the Bills had a realistic shot at winning last week. Stay clear.

New England Patriots (-7) vs Pittsburgh Steelers: This year I am going to make a point to avoid picking against the Steelers. Though they are off to a rough start, they were able to beat the Ravens (which might not be as impressive as originally thought) and do have talent. The health of Gronk will definitely be a major factor in this game, and right now is a major uncertainty.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Buffalo Bills: If you had to guess the spread of this game, most would not guess three. Though the Chiefs are undefeated, they do not put up points in bundles, and the Bills are no team to overlook. The Bills competed pretty well with the Saints in a hostile New Orleans environment. We have seen teams go up to Buffalo and struggle (New England and Cincinnati). I will continue to strongly encourage you not to pick road teams.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns: I was looking at who the public is going with this week, and believe it or not the Ravens are about the fifth most popular team this week. All I have to say is “why?”

The Ugly

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at St. Louis Rams: The Titans have been a pretty decent team, but you would be silly to pick them on the road in this game.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Houston Texans: This is going to be a very interesting NFL game, but again a game I do not want to pick, or think about picking.

Oakland Raiders (-1) vs Philadelphia Eagles: *yawn*

My Pick

Because of the teams I have already used, my only real options are the Cowboys, or Panthers. Here I am just going with the “safter” option, and am taking the Dallas Cowboys. The Panthers are interesting, but I may use them down the road when they host the Buccaneers. As I look at future, this is the week for me to take the Cowboys. I do not see them losing to the lowly Vikings.

Teams Used

Week 1: Indianapolis Colts

Week 2: New England Patriots

Week 3: Seattle Seahawks

Week 4: Denver Broncos

Week 5: St. Louis Rams

Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs

Week 7: Green Bay Packers

Week 8: New Orleans Saints

For the most part, it has been a pretty easy season. Last week the only major upset was the Dolphins losing at home to the Bills. However, now that it is Week 8, we have less than seven teams to choose from. This makes everything much more difficult.

The Good

San Francisco (-17) at Jacksonville Jaguars: I always say do not pick the road team, however the 49ers have been playing very well the last few weeks, and there is no reason to believe that they will not get work done in Jacksonville.

Denver Broncos (-13) vs Washington Redskins: The Redskins have an awful defense. Manning and the Broncos’ offense should have no problem putting up enough points to win this game.

New Orleans Saints (-12) vs Buffalo Bills: The Bills are coming off of a great win. They are now 1-1 under Thad Lewis, with their one loss coming in overtime. Though they have been playing well, the Saints are coming off of a bye and will be eager to get back to work, especially after they lost to the Patriots in such a close game. New Orleans is always a hostile environment, and it may be too tough for Buffalo to handle.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9) vs Cleveland Browns: Arrowhead is once again one of the loudest stadiums in the league. Teams really struggle to perform when traveling their. The Chiefs are playing great football right now and I do not see the Browns coming out on top.

Green Bay Packers (-9) at Minnesota Vikings: If for some reason you have none of the above teams available, this is a pretty good matchup. The Packers are playing very well this year and should be getting back some key players this week. The Vikings are playing on a short week, and have major questions at quarterback, such as, “Why is Josh Freeman starting?”

The Bad

New England Patriots (-7) vs Miami Dolphins: Getting Gronk back has certainly helped the Patriots, but their loss to the Jets does expose them. They may be down one too many players on defense. The Miami offense is not electric, but they may be able to put up enough points to make this closer than some expect.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs New York Jets: The Jets have actually shown some some major improvements and are no longer an automatic win. To go along with that, the Bengals are not quite good enough yet, to be trusted to simply win a game that they are expected to win.

Carolina Panthers (-6.5) at Tampa Bay: Thursday Night game, and a road game; double “no no.”

Philadelphia Eagles (-5) vs New York Giants: Divisional game, I do not like it.

The Ugly 

Detroit Lions (-3) vs Dallas Cowboys: Both teams are playing very well and have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. Though the Cowboys are very good, they have many injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They could hurt them since Johnson should be getting back to full strength, and the fact that the Lions are a completely different team at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Oakland Raiders: Blah

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) vs Atlanta Falcons

My Pick

Given the teams I have already used, my pick is the New Orleans Saints. I think it is pretty safe to say they are going to win this week for the reasons I talked about above. Though I also have the 49ers available, I am going to “save” them for another matchup later in the season.

Teams Used

Week 1: Indianapolis Colts

Week 2: New England Patriots

Week 3: Denver Broncos

Week 4: Seattle Seahawks

Week 5: St. Louis Rams

Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs

Week 7: Green Bay Packers

Congratulations, you have survived about one of third of the season. Once again it was a pretty quiet week. Though there were a few early scares, every major favorite won except for the Texans. Though I did say the Texans were a “Good” pick, I did warn that they had not been playing well and were not the safest option. Going forward, I am not sure we can evaluate them the same way that we have the last couple of years. They obviously have serious issues at the quarterback position, and until that issue is solved, I would steer far away from the Texans (unless they are playing Jacksonville).

This week is certainly going to be the most difficult week to date. With only one double digit favorite, there are nearly no “sure things” things this week. Though some of the spreads are pretty large, none seem overly safe to me. There will definitely be a couple of upsets this week, knocking out a decent number of people.

The Good

Green Bay Packers (-11.5) vs Cleveland Browns: The Green Bay Packers are the only double digit favorite of the week. The Packers are now 3-2, coming off of their first road victory of the season in an impressive win in Baltimore. The Browns saw their three game win streak snapped at home in a bad loss to the Lions. The only concern for the Packers here are their injuries. Cobb is out for this game, while Jones’ status and others remain up in the air. I write this early in the week so make sure to checkout the injury report prior to kickoff.

Miami Dolphins (-9) vs Buffalo Bills: If you have used the Packers, I guess this is your next best option. I am not crazy about the Dolphins just yet, but considering they are coming off of a bye, and will be up against Thad Lewis, they should be okay. I would consider this one of the “safer” picks of the week.

New York Giants (-3.5) vs Minnesota Vikings: I promise you this is not a homer pick, I legitimately like the Giants this week. Look teams are 6-2 this year after playing Thursday night. The Giants had an extra, extra long week to prepare for the Vikings. The Giants certainly showed signs of coming out of their slump last week. They out played the Bears for 59 minutes in that game, unfortunately, Manning threw two picks (one pick six) in the first minute of the game. Yes, I like the Giants here.

The Bad

San Diego Chargers (-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Some may say that the Falcons losing last week was the big upset of the year, however I think this has a chance to be an even bigger upset. Rule number one is to never pick the road team. Too many things here seem to be building up to a big upset. The Chargers are fresh off of a great win and now on a short week have to travel across country to play the winless Jaguars. The Jaguars at least did not lose by 28 points last week. They did look “okay.” The Jaguars WILL win a game this year. Chances are it will come at home. This COULD be it.

Atlanta Falcons (-8.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: No Julio Jones, possibly no Roddy White? I do not want any part of the Falcons right now until they prove to be the team we thought they were at the beginning of the season.

Carolina Panthers (-7) vs St. Louis: This spread really surprises me. Both teams are coming off of great wins. Though St. Louis has to travel on the road, I do not think the Panthers are by any means, a “lock.”

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Houston Texans: Though I do not particularly love it, it might be an okay pick. I have already used the Chiefs so they are not even one of my options, but I just do not really like it.

Denver Broncos (-7) vs Indianapolis Colts: Exciting game, but no thank you.

Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Arizona Cardinals: I am not a fan of these Thursday Night Games. Luckily I already used Seattle so I will not be suckered into this one. Typically the superior team will play down to their level of competition because of their lack of rest and preparation. The Cardinals hung with the 49ers on Sunday, so we will see what they will do at home against Seattle.

The Ugly

New England Patriots (-4) at New York Jets: Remember the last time these teams played? I do, because I picked the Patriots and was freaking out the entire second half. The Jets defense completely shut down New England the first time around and only thanks to three Geno Smith interceptions did the Patriots squeak out a win. Though New England’s offense has improved, the Jets defense is legitimate. The thing that worries me the most is Geno Smith’s improvement, and the major injuries the Patriots have suffered on the defensive side of the ball. The Patriots better show up for all four quarters if they want to grab a win here.

San Francisco 49ers (-4) at Tennessee Titans: I really have not been impressed with the 49ers this year. I have been impressed with the Titans though. Although Fitzpatrick is their quarterback, at home they should put up a real fight against the 49ers.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) vs Baltimore Ravens: Next…

Chicago Bears (PK) at Washington Redskins: The Bears probably win this because of their extra time to prepare, but the Redskins’ offense has improved and may be able to exploit that banged up Chicago defensive line. However for as long as the Redskins do not have a legitimate defense, they will struggle to win.

My Pick

As I have already mentioned, this is not an easy week. I am riding the safest route possible right now and taking Green Bay. Despite their injuries, they should be able to take care of business at home against Cleveland. At this point, my motto is simply “live to see another week,” and that is what I am trying to do.

Teams Used

Week 1: Indianapolis Colts

Week 2: New England Patriots

Week 3: Seattle Seahawks

Week 4: Denver Broncos

Week 5: St. Louis Rams

Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs

There it is! All season we have been waiting for the first major upset. For the first time, a ten point favorite lost at home. With the Falcons losing, many people were knocked out of their pools last night. Though I was contemplating picking the Falcons, I thankfully elected to pick the St. Louis Rams who easily defeated the Jaguars. Now that we five weeks into the season, it appears that already 75% of people have been knocked out. I am currently in a pool that had 457 participants in Week 1, now there are exactly 100 people left.

If you are still alive, you should be very happy. It is important to evaluate how many people are left in your pool and how long you think your pool will last. If there are only 10 people left, you will most likely not have to pick all 17 weeks correctly. If this is the case, it would be silly to take a big risk, and smarter to take the more conservative route.

The Chiefs look to stay perfect as they host the Oakland Raiders this week.

The Good

Denver Broncos (-26.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Unfortunately many people have already picked the Broncos (myself included). However, if you are one of the people who still have them stashed away, this is the safest pick you will see all season.

Seattle Seahawks (-14.5) vs Tennessee Titans: Here we have another team that I have already used this season. Pretty much any time the Seahawks are in Seattle, they are a safe pick. The Titans have looked decent this season but did lose to the Chiefs at home last week, and are still without Jake Locker. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not even as good as Locker.

San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) vs Arizona Cardinals: After a 1-2 start, the Cardinals have won two weeks in a row and are 3-2. After a 1-2 too, the 49ers are now 3-2 after winning two in a row. Their 34-3 win at home against the Texans was very impressive. After there was question about them not being the same kind of team, it looks like the 49ers are back on track.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) vs Oakland Raiders: The Chiefs are 24-4 in their last 28 home games when they are 7.5 point favorites or higher. The Raiders did win last week, but I do not think they will win this week in Kansas City.

Houston Texans (-8.5) vs St. Louis Rams: After I picked the Rams last week, I am tempted to pick against them this week. The Texans have not looked good the last two weeks, but you cannot compare the Rams to either the Seahawks, nor the 49ers. The Texans understand the significance of this game, and will want to come out strong in front of their home crowd against an inferior opponent.

The Bad

Chicago Bears (-7.5) vs New York Giants: As bad as the Giants have looked, I just do not like picking the Thursday Night game. The Giants may show up at some point, and the Bears are not good enough for you just to expect them to win.

Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5) at Buffalo Bills: The Bills are starting a QB off of their practice squad this week, so the Bengals should win. However, the Bengals are on the road, and did not show up in Cleveland earlier in the year. As bad as the Bills should be this week, the Bengals are not a proven road team yet.

Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) vs Washington Redskins: The Cowboys looked like a very good team last week. Allowing 51 points is a concern, but their offense was able to compete. The bye week came at a good time for the Redskins. I would stay away from this divisional game.

The Ugly

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Cleveland Browns: The Browns are on a three game winning streak, yes they are. The Lions have not looked the best. Calvin Johnson should be back this week which should definitely help, but the Lions are no guarantee to win.

New England Patriots (-2.5) vs New Orleans Saints: What should be a great NFL game, between two great teams, I want no part of.

Green Bay Packers (-2) at Baltimore Ravens: It is fair to say that the Packers are the better team, however the Packers are 0-2 on the road this year, while the Ravens are 2-0 at home.

New York Jets (-2) vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Let’s not all jump on the Geno Smith bandwagon after one week. Do not forget all the turnovers in the prior weeks.

Indianapolis Colts (PK) at San Diego Chargers: As well as the Colts have been playing in the last couple of weeks, do not sleep on the Chargers. Philip Rivers is having a blast from the past and is playing very well. The Chargers have been a tough team at home, and on Monday Night, it may be a tough game for the Colts.

My Pick

Since I have already used the Broncos and the Seahawks, there is no lock for me this week, but there are some very nice options. I have decided to go with Chiefs this week. Right now they are playing very very well and are undefeated. Once again Arrowhead is becoming a very hostile environment. Though the Raiders have not been as bad as we all thought they would be, they are still not a good team. Let’s not forget the Chiefs are 9.5 point favorites. The big stat that I like here is the Chiefs lead the league in sacks this year, while the Raiders allow the fourth most sacks in the league. The Chiefs should be able to get pressure on Pryor and force turnovers, something they also lead the league in.

Teams Used

Week 1: Indianapolis Colts

Week 2: New England Patriots

Week 3: Seattle Seahawks

Week 4: Denver Broncos

Week 5: St. Louis Rams

Survivor Pool: Week 5

Posted: October 3, 2013 in Uncategorized

For the most part it has been a pretty uneventful season. The only major upsets have come on the road, which is the exact reason why you do not pick road teams. With four teams on a bye this week, and you already being down four teams, this week will definitely be the toughest one yet. There are no real solid options like there have been the last two weeks. The best thing I can recommend, is to continue to be smart, and be aware of how many people are still left in your pool and the rate at which people are getting eliminated.

The Good

St. Louis Rams (-12.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars: We all know the Jaguars are awful, the question is how good are the Rams? After four weeks, they are 1-3 yet 1-1 at home after beating the Cardinals Week 1 and losing to the 49ers last Thursday night. Though that Thursday Night game left a poor taste, remember teams are 5-1 this season following Thursday Night games. This is a “must win” game for the Rams and they should get it done as the biggest favorite this week.

Atlanta Falcons (-10.5) vs New York Jets: Despite the Jets entering this game with a better record, the Falcons are a very safe pick this week. The Falcons are only 1-3 this year but have been matched up against some very good teams. Historically, Matt Ryan and co play very well at home. The Jets have struggled on the road this season and will be without some of their key weapons, Santonio Holmes and Steven Hill.

Green Bay Packers (-8) vs Detroit Lions:  This will not be an easy game for the Packers to win, but they should win. Once again the team I like has the worse record, however the Packers are at home have done well at home against the Lions in the past. There are definitely a couple better options this week, but if you feel stuck, the Packers are interesting.

Denver Broncos (-8.5) at Dallas Cowboys: In most cases, it is not good to pick the road team, however the Broncos are playing at another level right now. Chances are you have already used the Broncos or are “saving” them for next week, but if they are still available and you do not like the other options, they should win.

The Bad

San Francisco 49ers (-7) vs Houston Texans: After a long week to prepare, the 49ers should win this game at home. Though if you forget that Week 4 ever happened, you would not feel too good about the 49ers team. Just because they beat up on the Rams does not mean they are necessarily back. The Texans were not happy with their performance last week and will definitely want to make a statement. Even if Houston is not their old self, they are still better than the Rams, and the 49ers better be ready.

Cleveland Browns (-3) vs Buffalo Bills: Since trading Trent Richardson away and starting Brian Hoyer, the Browns are 2-0 and are elite. Bet the house on them.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans: At firs this game may look appealing, the Chiefs are 4-0 and the Titans have a reputation for being a bad team. However the Chiefs are on the road, and the Titans are actually a decent team this year. Though they lost Jake Locker, they should still be a decent team. People have been burned by the backup quarterback before (Brian Hoyer), you just never know.

Seattle Seahawks (-2) at Indianapolis Colts: We saw last week that the Seahawks are mortal.

The Ugly

San Diego Chargers (-4) at Oakland Raiders: I do not particularly like either team and you are not going to pick the Chargers to win a road game.

Miami Dolphins (-3) vs Baltimore Ravens: After both teams had pretty solid starts to their seasons, both teams laid an egg last week. It will be interesting to see how both teams respond. The Ravens have struggled on the road this year, while this is the first game the Dolphins will play after suffering a loss.

Carolina Panthers (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals: No thank you.

Cincinnati Bengals (PK) vs New England Patriots: Your classic great NFL game that you want absolutely no part of.

New York Giants (-1) vs Philadelphia Eagles: Ugh

My Pick

This is a very, very, very tough week. My two real options are the Rams and Falcons. The “safe” choice would be the Falcons, however you wonder if you would ever get the opportunity to use the Rams again. Since they are the largest favorite of the week, they seem like a great value pick, with minimal risk. That is all true until you realize you are resting your fate on a 1-3 team that was just destroyed. I am going to have to really think this over. I will post my pick later in the week, before Sunday Kickoff. It will be either the Rams or Falcons depending on how bold I feel.

Good Luck!

Three weeks down, and fourteen more to go. Well thank goodness I elected to pick the Seahawks and skipped the Vikings. For the first time this season, one of my “Good” picks for the week lost. Other than the Vikings losing, no other notable teams lost, except for maybe the 49ers. Hopefully you have taken my advice and gone with the safe option. Already in just the first three weeks, only 244 of the 457 people in pools remain.

Up until this point, it has been pretty easy to make your pick. This week in addition to being down the three teams you have already picked, there are two teams on a bye week, those two teams being the Packers and Panthers. From here on out you may have to think out of the box, but I still recommend that you pick the best option available.

Right now the Jacksonville Jaguars are arguably the worst team in the NFL.

The Good

Denver Broncos (-12) vs Philadelphia Eagles: It is amazing how the perception of the Eagles has changed so far this season. After Week 1, people were saying they might win the NFC East. Then they lost two in a row at home in games that they should have won if they are going to be a playoff team. Now they have to travel on the road to play against the Broncos who are the best team in the AFC right now. Peyton Manning is off to one of the greatest starts in NFL history, and it is no mystery that this Philadelphia defense is bad. If the Broncos are still available, I would take them.

Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Many people including myself took the Colts in Week 1. However if you have yet to use them, this would be the week. The Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL. Though they are home, the Colts are coming off of an impressive win against the 49ers and now have an additional playmaker in Trent Richardson. The Jaguars might win a game this year, but not this week.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns: Another road team here. Though I do not advocate picking the road teams too often, the Bengals are a pretty solid choice. There is a decent chance that you have already chosen the Colts and Broncos. If that is the case, look no further. The Bengals are a legitimate team, and do not let the Browns win last week fool you, they are a bad football team.

The Bad

New Orleans Saints (-7) vs Miami Dolphins: Who would have thought that this Week 4 matchup would feature two 3-0 teams. Though the Saints should win this game, and should play well in front of their home crowd on Monday Night Football, I am going to avoid this game simply because Miami does make me just a little nervous. I think the Dolphins have the best defense the Saints have faced so far this season and could make this an uncomfortably close game. The Saints have solid matchups down the road, and there is value to saving them.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) vs New York Giants: The Giants are 0-3, but are not at the level of the Jaguars. The Giants can get hot at any time, and you would be silly to pick the Chiefs here despite the fact that they should win this game, and are 3-0 after a long week.

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs New York Jets: Titans have actually looked decent this year. Unfortunately the Jets have looked okay as well. Chances are the Titans win at home, but I do not trust Tennessee enough to pick them.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills: The Ravens have now won two in a row and are coming off of a great win. Traveling to Buffalo should equal another win, but I am not risking it at this point.

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at St. Louis Rams: This is my trap game of the week. Remember the 49ers did not beat the Rams in either of their matchups last year. The 49ers are coming off of back to back losses, and their offense has looked atrocious. We have seen on Thursday night games, that teams are just not as prepared. For example, the Jets hung with the Patriots and almost pulled off the impossible.

Washington Redskins (-3) at Oakland Raiders: It’s just a bad game. But we should learn a lot about these two teams by the outcome.

The Ugly

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Houston Texans: Should be a great game, but I want no part of it. The Texans have not looked great this season so this will be a huge test for them to see how much of a contender they truly are.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) vs Arizona Cardinals: U-G-L-Y.

Chicago Bears (-1.5) vs Detroit Lions: Divisional matchup that I do not want any part of.

Dallas Cowboys (-1) at San Diego Chargers: Chargers have played teams competitively this year. You never really know what Dallas team will show up. They just lost Anthony Spencer which is a major loss. Cowboys should win this game, but the Chargers may be better than advertised.

Pittsburgh Steelers (PK) vs Minnesota Vikings: One of these teams will be 0-4, wow.

My Pick

If you have not picked the Colts yet, I encourage you to pick them. Because I used them Week 1, I will be using the Denver Broncos this week. The only concern I have for this game is the fact that the Broncos will be playing on a short week, while the Eagles will be playing on ten days rest. Following a Thursday night game, teams are 4-0. Despite all this, the Broncos are just too good and are playing too well for the Eagles right now. The Eagles may have a good offense, but their defense is awful. Manning is playing at such a high level right now, and should have no problem putting up 40 points if he has to.

Teams Used

Week 1: Indianapolis Colts

Week 2: New England Patriots

Week 3: Seattle Seahawks

Good Luck!

Another week in the books. For the most part, Week 2 was pretty uneventful when it came to upsets, however there were plenty of scares. In fact, 12 of the 16 games this week were decided by 8 or fewer points. The Patriots (my pick), Ravens, and Texans all had very close wins. The only major upset that knocked out people this week was the Eagles losing to the Chargers. I have to admit I was surprised when the Eagles lost, however I did tell you not to overreact to their Week 1 performance and make a stupid decision. Hopefully you did not.

For the second straight week, all of my “good” picks, won. As I mentioned,  all four of them were close games, as they were all decided by seven or fewer points. However in this game, it is not about how much your team wins by, just simply whether or not your team wins. Hopefully this week brings similar results. I would advice you not to get too fancy, and simply make a good pick, with smart reason.

Seattle is the largest favorite this week at home against the Jaguars.

The Good

Seattle Seahawks (-19.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Perhaps the biggest spread you will see all season. The Seahawks are arguably the best team in the NFL right now and there is no reason why they will not win this game. The only question becomes, are they your pick for this week? Because they are so good, they have great future value so you need to determine if this is the week you use them.

Denver Broncos (-15.5) vs Oakland Raiders: Large spread, Broncos should win, but I am not picking it this week. Too many other options this week to burn Denver. I am not a fan of saving a team for the sake of saving them, but this is the week to pick Denver.

San Francisco 49ers (-11.5) vs Indianapolis Colts: I view picking the 49ers this week, very similarly to the way I view picking the Broncos. The Colts do not seem to be as good as they were last year, and traveling out to San Francisco will probably not help straighten out their issues. With that being said, I think the 49ers win this game easily, but they have better matchups ahead.

New Orleans Saints (-9) vs Arizona Cardinals: Though it was not a pretty win against the Buccaneers, nonetheless the Saints are 2-0 and look like they may be back! The fact that the Buccaneers game was close does not really matter to me, it is more important that the Saints are home. Before last year, New Orleans was one of the toughest places to play. We already saw the Saints beat the Falcons Week 1 at home, so there is no reason not to believe that they cannot beat the Cardinals this week.

Minnesota Vikings (-5) vs Cleveland Browns: The Vikings?!?! Yes, the Vikings. Though Minnesota is 0-2, both their games have been on the road and were against quality divisional opponents (Lions and Bears). To go along with that, the Vikings were in it until the very end in both of those games. Last year they were 7-1 at home, while the Browns were 1-7 on the road. Last year Ponder had a +1 touchdown to interception ratio on the road, however had a +5 touchdown to interception ratio at home. The fact is, he is just better at home. The Browns pedestrian offense should not be enough to win in Minnesota, which as mentioned, is a hostile environment. To go along with this, there are also injury concerns surrounding Brandon Weeden, which may be good or bad news for the Browns.

The Bad

New England Patriots (-9) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Well I would say about 50% of the remaining survivors have already taken the Patriots so for those people, they are not even an option. However if they are still available, I recommend avoiding them. The Patriots are 2-0, but have only beat the Bills and the Jets, two of what most would consider the worst in the NFL. Without receivers, Brady is not his normal self. Amendola is out this week, and Gronk is only 50-50 right now. Even if he does play he will not be 100% right away. I would avoid this game at all measures.

Dallas Cowboys (-4) vs St. Louis Rams: Both teams are 1-1 coming off of loses. The Cowboys should be able to win this game at home, but the Rams have a pretty solid defense despite their performance last week. Though their defense was not great in that game, we did see that their offense can put up points, which will give them a shot to win this game if the Cowboys make mistakes.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-1): Both teams are 0-2, so this is almost a must win for both. Though the Giants have turned the ball over 10 times already this season, I still expect them to win. Last year they came into Carolina and had one of their best games of the season. I just do not see Tom Coughlin’s squad starting out 0-3 and playing another game of sloppy football.

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1): Believe it or not, the Dolphins are off to a 2-0 start. The Falcons were able to rebound last week against the Rams, and should win again this week. However given it is a road game, and the early success of the Dolphins I advice avoiding this game. Depending on the outcome of the game, we will also get a better understanding of how legitimate the Dolphins really are.

The Ugly 

Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-3): It is amazing how much of a difference one week can make. Just a week ago everyone was praising Chip Kelly, and now they are criticizing his tactics down the stretch against the Chargers. This game is being played on a Thursday, which always makes it tough to pick. The Chiefs are without a doubt the best defense the Eagles have faced so far. On top of that, do not think Andy Reid will not have his players fired up for his return back to Philly.

New York Jets (-1.5) vs Buffalo Bills: Not going to waste my time.

Chicago Bears (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers have not looked good this season and now have to avoid an 0-3 start on a short week. It is certainly a tough task, but I cannot trust either team enough in this situation.

Washington Redskins (-1) vs Detroit Lions: The Redskins went from being one of the most exciting teams in the NFL to a team that struggles to put up points in the first half. RGIII is not himself yet, which should have been expected given this is his first live football action. This week should tell us if the Redskins are back on the right track, or if maybe we have to rethink just how good they are.

Houston Texans (-1) at Baltimore Ravens: Both teams were supposed to be competing for the AFC title, however neither team has looked too good to start the season.

My Pick

For awhile I did contemplate on whether or not I should take the Vikings. They are a very sneaky pick, and should win this week against the Browns. However in the end, I am going to take the safe route and take the Seattle Seahawks. This is perhaps the heaviest favorite you will see this year. Because of this, pretty much everyone in your pool will be on them. I do not believe too many people will get knocked out this week, so simply take the safe route and survive to see Week 4!

Teams Used 

Week 1: Indianapolis Colts

Week 2: New England Patriots

Popular in the Public

  1. Seattle Seahawks: 52.2%
  2. Denver Broncos: 16.0%
  3. Minnesota Vikings 7.7%
  4. New Orleans Saints 4.5%
  5. Atlanta Falcons 3.2%

Good luck this week!